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ShimanoTech Supply Chain — Scenario Model
Board-Requested Downside Analysis · Prepared for James Thornton, Board Chair
Born2Cycle Inc.
Confidential — Board Use Only
As of March 26, 2026
Confidential — Board Use Only
As of March 26, 2026
Monthly Revenue
Budget baseline vs scenario · $K
Gross Margin %
Impact of freight, COGS inflation, and revenue deleverage
Monthly EBITDA
Budget baseline vs scenario · $K
Line of Credit Draw & Cash Position
LOC drawn (bars) vs total cash (line) · $K · Red line = $250K LOC ceiling
Monthly P&L Impact Detail ($K)
▶ Key Assumptions by Scenario
Base Case
- Osaka factory reaches full capacity April 7
- Shipment A ($145K) arrives Portland May 8–12 via sea
- Shipment B ($240K) ships April 20, arrives May 15–20
- Partial air freight for top 15 SKUs: $28K (April)
- TrekParts bridge: $65K product at 18% cost premium for 4–6 weeks ($12K incremental COGS)
- E-commerce stockout rate returns to <3% by late May
- Lost e-commerce revenue: ~$70K in April, normalises in May
- One-time total cost: $85–95K across March–April
- LOC peaks at ~$225–235K in April, returns below $200K by July
Stress Case
- Osaka stays at 70% capacity through June
- Shipment A arrives on schedule (May 8–12)
- Shipment B delayed to July — only partial fills in June
- Additional air freight in May: $20K for critical restocks
- TrekParts bridge extended through June: $12K/mo COGS delta
- E-commerce revenue miss: $70K Apr, $50K May, $35K Jun
- Stockout rate: 6–7% through June, normalises by August
- Brand damage: 2–3% reduction in e-commerce conversion sustained
- Total incremental cost: $155–175K over April–July
- LOC peaks at ~$285–305K in June
Worst Case
- Osaka factory experiences further disruption; no product until Sep
- Shipment A arrives but Shipment B cancelled or indefinitely delayed
- TrekParts capacity limited to ~$40K/mo; cannot fully substitute
- Air freight required monthly: $15–25K/mo Apr–Aug
- E-commerce revenue miss: $70–80K/mo sustained
- In-store revenue impact begins in June as floor stock depletes: 5–8% hit
- Stockout rate: 10–15% through summer, brand damage accelerates
- E-commerce conversion permanently impaired ~5–8% (customers find alternatives)
- Total incremental cost: $320–380K over April–September
- LOC peaks at $370–400K; board approval required above $250K
- Store #14 expansion deferred indefinitely